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July 11, 2004 Towards a Quiet Revolution By Am Johal What is happening in the Middle East? It makes Edward Said throwing a stone in Lebanon seem like a minor event. To the outsider looking in, the region is in chaos. And within the context of world affairs post-September 11th, post-Afghanistan and post-war Iraq, it's only natural that the United States is now peddling their Greater Middle East Initiative to advance democracy and capitalism in the region. The lukewarm reception isn't surprising. At the heart of the Arab world's critique is American policy in Israel. All this in the middle of an American election campaign where both George W. Bush and John Kerry are shaping their Middle East foreign policy. Partnered with Russia, the European Union and the UN, the US led Roadmap to Peace is on life support, some are already calling it dead. The Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, are regularly reporting on the diplomatic machinations of the top bureaucrats flying between Jerusalem and Washington and the late night phone calls between National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice and Sharon's deputy Dov Weisglass. Former high level diplomats from the US and UK have released statements this month criticizing American and British foreign policy in the Middle East. Ariel Sharon, the man who kicked off the Al Aqsa Intifada with his visit to the Temple Mount is now considered a moderate in today's Israel and is facing attacks on the left and right. His proposal to take down settlements in the Gaza Strip went down to defeat in the Likud Party's referendum with the resulting instability in his own Cabinet leading to the firing of two right wing Ministers. Yes, this is General Sharon of the 1982 Lebanon War, the one who brought down American Secretary of State Alexander Haig. Ariel Sharon, in his 70's, is nothing if not the ultimate political survivor. He has been disregarded before but has managed to resurface. There is talk of new coalitions and new partnerships to keep the government from falling. Sharon's relationship with Shinui, Labour and the religious parties continues to be tenuous at best but he continues to survive the 'no-confidence' motions filed against his Likud government. He has even rekindled an alliance with Egyptian President Husni Mubarak. Meanwhile, stripped of real power,Yasser Arafat continues to be holed up at the Muqata, his Ramallah compound, monitoring the instability of the Palestinian state and mustering the resources to engage in yet another peace process. In arguably the most beautiful country in the world, in the land of religion where Judaism, Christianity and Islam originate, where home demolitions, checkpoints, spraying of Bedouin lands, suicide bombings, assassinations, police and military brutality are forms of communication in this battle over land and history, the country is going through what could be termed as the "Mid-Intifada Blues." And it is in this environment that new ideas and new approaches are gaining currency. This debate is as much religious versus secular as it is Palestinian versus Israeli. Since the beginning of the Al Aqsa Intifada in September 2000, over 4,000 people have died. The barrage of daily headlines of the brutality of this conflict has a dehumanizing effect. This has been a bloodier version of the first intifada which brought the aspirations of an independent Palestinian state to the Israeli mainstream resulting in the early optimism associated with the Oslo Accords. With the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, came the lost years where the peace process died and the various governments from Binyamin Netanyahu to Ehud Barak could not establish a compelling direction to take the country. It was in this very vacuum that the present policies were born. Within Israel itself, the killing of thirteen Arab citizens in October 2000 led to the Or Commission report which found systematic discrimination by state institutions of its Arab citizens and called for changes in Israeli government policy. Enter Ariel Sharon. The one who authorized the assassinations of Hamas leader Sheikh Yassin and the new leader Abdel Rantisi earlier this year, the one who is putting up a wall through Jerusalem and the West Bank, and overseeing the military operation in Rafah, is now the poster child of peace in the Middle East. No amount of United Nations resolutions or International Court of Justice decisions are going to influence Sharon. Not even the economic incentive of one day joining the European Union. This is a country firmly positioned outside of the mainstream of world affairs, fully supported by the US administration. And within its own borders in cities like Nazareth, the Islamic Movement has 5,000 person rallies. The Left is fractured and continues to be in disarray since the downfall of the Barak government. Despite the 150,000 strong Peace Now rallies where the statesmanlike Shimon Peres makes speeches and former Shin Bet Director Ami Ayalon leads the People's Voice Initiative, there is an air of cynicism percolating. A feeling of 'we've been there, done that before.' It was, after all, the Labour government which had first initiated the idea of constructing a Separation Wall. There is also the Geneva Accord led by former Justice Minister Yossi Beilin and others associated with the Oslo Process. There is a feeling that these peace processes have a history of leading nowhere, and that there needs to be an advancement in social, economic and political rights to bring about equality in the region in the short term - that behind the profile and publicity behind these agreements there is an opportunity for other advances to happen through other channels and networks. There is a general consensus in the country that despite the best efforts for building peace in the region by the US, the UN, the EU and the Israeli government, the situation is in fact deteriorating. And that it will continue to get worse, before it will get better. There is a structural problem at the heart of this conflict that normalizes the present situation and rewards the radical elements on either side of this debate. The vast majority of people can live a relatively normal life in Israel, but you would be hard pressed to find somebody not touched by the brutality of this conflict. Added to the regional problem is the emerging crisis within Israel. Even for those who support a two state solution, the debate within Israel is to reconcile the tensions between being both a Jewish and a democratic state. As Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated earlier this year at the Herzliya Conference, Israel is in the midst of a demographic crisis. 20% of Israel's citizens within its own border are Arab citizens who are increasing at a greater rate than the Jewish population. This issue coupled with government ministers openly calling for the ethnic transfer of this population is creating an even more dangerous political climate - one which supports the erosion of certain civil rights in an effort designed to maintain a "demographic balance" to maintain a Jewish majority. At the heart of the issue is the very culture of occupation and resistance that's been created and perpetuated since 2000 and earlier. The normalization of this situation has reduced the number of casualties in comparison to other regional conflicts, but structured the state apparatus in such a way that it will last longer. In many ways, the region is still going through the trauma of 1948, 1967 and 1982. Israel has remained stubborn in the face of many UN resolutions and violations of international law. When people look back at this dark era in Israel, it will have been regarded as a failure on a number of fronts. The power brokers could not fashion a real and lasting peace - one that reduced the carnage, ended the checkpoints, stopped the home demolitions, ended suicide bombings, extended the idea of equal rights, stopped the construction of the apartheid wall, the humiliation of living under occupation, supported compliance with international law or defined the borders of a two state solution. Since the first intifada and the Oslo accords, this will be seen as a giant leap backwards - an addendum of failure built on the decade before. It is within this environment that a new leadership will emerge out of the various peace movements within Israel and Palestine. This new period will begin after the Geneva Accords and after the Roadmap to Peace will have been exhausted. It will have to be a more strategic, more sophisticated and peaceful endeavour than the initiatives of the previous two decades. It will need the involvement of the NGO sector. It will also once again need a renewed partnership with the US, the EU and the UN. It will also need a new generation of writers to create a new narrative in the region. Over forty years ago in the Canadian province of Quebec in a period known as the "Quiet Revolution," a new generation modernized the institutions of a conservative province and made great advances in political, economic and cultural rights. So the inevitable counter response to this bloody period in Israeli and Palestinian history will be a political agenda of equal rights driven by peaceful means. Its aim will be to transform the institutions of the state to create a more democratic future. This will involve legal, political and economic approaches. It may even involve a move from the Basic Laws to a constitution for the country. Perhaps it won't begin to gather momentum until 2010. But the Israeli version of the "Quiet Revolution" is inevitable. Am Johal is a Canadian freelance writer living in Israel. |
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